November’s diamond market carried an oddly familiar rhythm — steady footing for larger stones, soft slippage for the smaller goods, and that persistent drag around the 1-carat category that’s become almost expected by now. Prices for big gems barely moved, holding their ground with a kind of quiet determination, while small stones continued their downward drift as the trends of recent months refused to budge. You could almost sense the tension in India, where declines were noticeably sharper, the weight of America’s 50% import duties pressing heavily on trading sentiment. Much of the industry spent the month essentially waiting, hoping for even a hint of resolution.
The figures, sourced from Rapaport’s RapNet Diamond Index, paint the picture with clinical clarity. The 0.30-carat index dropped 6% in November and is down more than 12% year to date. Half-carat stones fell another 5.1%, deepening a bruising 21% slide since January. Even the core 1-carat segment — tracking round, D-to-H, IF-to-VS2 goods — couldn’t escape gravity, slipping 2.6% for the month and around 8% year on year. Only 3-carat stones showed a touch of resilience, inching up 0.1%, a tiny but symbolically important upward tick amid the broader softness. Prices for 1-carat SI stones eased another 1.7%, reinforcing the sense of a market adjusting slowly, sometimes reluctantly.
Across the Atlantic, the US provided a steadier backdrop. Pre-holiday demand for 2- to 4-carat stones — especially F to J and VS to SI — helped support pricing, and record online consumer spending over Thanksgiving and Black Friday didn’t hurt either. Still, the growing emphasis among major US jewelers on lab-grown stones for fashion categories shows how quickly consumer preferences are evolving, and how naturally-grown goods are being pushed to defend their position. India’s domestic market held up decently, which softened the blow for local traders, while China remained subdued but not quite worsening. Chow Tai Fook’s revenue slip narrowed to just 1.1% in the first fiscal half, and Luk Fook’s projection of a 20% to 30% revenue jump signaled that not all the news from the region was gloomy.
The supply side felt somewhat more strained. India’s rough imports plunged 45% year on year in October — partly due to the Diwali slowdown and partly a deliberate step to cut back swollen inventories. De Beers held its prices steady at the November sight but told clients they were free to refuse goods, a quiet acknowledgment of difficult trading conditions. Their boxes remained more expensive than material available on the open market, a mismatch that continues to frustrate buyers. Meanwhile, Namibia’s interest in acquiring a minority stake in De Beers added a geopolitical wrinkle that could matter down the road depending on how global supply politics evolve.
Heading into the holidays, sentiment splits along predictable lines. Independent jewelers expect solid interest in larger rounds and fancies, and special cuts — marquise, old mine, and other character-rich shapes — have been enjoying a stylish little revival. But the softness in smalls and the wobble in 1-carat goods still hang in the background, hinting that early 2026 pricing may lean heavily on what actually moves in December. November leaves the industry with that feeling of a market quietly recalibrating — steady at the top, fragile at the bottom, all framed by the numbers Rapaport tracks so meticulously every month.
