Housing supply is drifting into a strange, slightly weary limbo, almost as if the market exhaled after two years of tension and then wasn’t sure what to do next. The latest Redfin data sketches out a picture of a market that isn’t frozen, exactly, but moving with a kind of sluggish hesitation. Total inventory is technically still rising, up 5.1% year over year, yet that increase is the smallest in nearly two years. The pulse is faint. New listings barely grew—just 0.9%—as many homeowners prefer to stay anchored where they are rather than test demand that feels thin. And quite a few who do list eventually give up, pulling their homes off the market after realizing they’re not going to get the price they hoped for. Rising delistings silently tell the story: the standoff between sellers’ price expectations and buyers’ limited budgets is becoming more pronounced.
Demand isn’t doing much to shake things loose either. Pending sales slipped 2.6% year over year, the sharpest drop in eight months, and homes that do find buyers sit around for about 50 days before going under contract—roughly a week longer than last fall. Buyers haven’t vanished, but they’re cautious. Even as mortgage payments dipped slightly (down 1.2% from last year) thanks to rates softening toward 6.23%, affordability still feels brutal. Prices continue crawling upward—up 2.2%, the strongest rise in almost eight months. Combine that with persistent economic jitters and the early winter slowdown, and it’s no wonder prospective buyers are deciding to wait a little longer before making a life-altering purchase.
Redfin agent Carlos Castillo captures the mood well: the buyer pool is thinner than usual, not only because of the seasonal lull but because people simply feel strapped. Deals can be found, especially in markets where sellers outnumber buyers, but they require finesse. He notes that offering around 4% under list price feels about right in Los Angeles—aggressive enough to be meaningful, not so bold that sellers shut down instantly. It’s a dance in a dimly lit room where both partners keep checking their wallets.
The broader demand indicators add more texture to this slowdown. Mortgage applications nudged up 3% week over week and stand 17% higher than last year, signaling some interest brewing beneath the surface. Google searches for “homes for sale” ticked up 10%. But Redfin’s own Homebuyer Demand Index sits near a two-month low, and touring activity is still down 32% from the start of the year. People are browsing, thinking, hesitating. The intent is there; the commitment isn’t.
On the pricing front, the national median sale price sits at $388,625, with metros like Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Nassau County leading the yearly gains—tight inventory and resilient local demand give these markets a surprising glow. But declines are showing up too, especially in places where pandemic-era price jumps outpaced incomes: Jacksonville, Oakland, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Seattle all posted notable drops. Pending sales are cratering in markets like San Jose, Seattle, Houston, Tampa, and San Diego, hinting at deeper demand fatigue in regions that were once red hot.
New listings tell another story of uneven momentum. Boston, Minneapolis, Virginia Beach, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh posted strong growth, while several Florida and Texas metros—Tampa, Jacksonville, San Antonio—are sharply contracting. It’s as if the geography of confidence is shifting, with the Northeast and Midwest leaning into activity while the Sunbelt edges back after years of runaway growth.
Altogether, the picture is one of a market trying to balance on a beam: inventory building, but not too quickly; buyers interested, but wary; sellers hopeful, but increasingly flexible. Months of supply now sit at 4.8, edging toward true balance after years of undersupply. And while that’s healthy on paper, the lived experience for buyers and sellers feels more muddled. No crash, no boom—just a long stretch of uncertainty where everybody is waiting for someone else to move first.
