The AI Market Analyzer reads 30.4, in the Cooling zone, for the week so far. Last week closed at 28.0, the lowest weekly reading since April 2025. That was the week chip stocks had their second-worst day on record. And the index barely flinched, because most of its price inputs were already near the floor. This is the fifth straight week below 45. All seven inputs now sit at the extremes, five price gauges in AI Winter on one side and leveraged traders and company guidance in AI Mania on the other. Only the gap between them has changed. It got wider. Today’s broad chip rally, set off by CoreWeave’s results, came after this reading and will show up in the next one.
Scoreboard
| Reading | Week of | Score | Zone | Change to now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (week so far) | 2026-11-10 | 30.4 | Cooling | |
| Last week | 2026-11-06 | 28.0 | Cooling | +2.4 |
| Two weeks ago | 2026-10-30 | 32.2 | Cooling | -1.8 |
| Month ago | 2026-10-09 | 63.6 | Hype | -33.2 |
| Year ago | 2025-11-07 | 78.3 | AI Mania | -47.9 |
Seven inputs, still two stories
The score is the plain average of seven inputs, each scaled from 0 to 100, built on an 18-stock AI basket that now includes SanDisk alongside the chip, equipment, networking, power and cloud names. Five inputs are in AI Winter. Two are in AI Mania. Nothing sits in the middle.
| Input | What it measures | Score | Zone | Latest reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | Basket against its 25-week average | 5.3 | AI Winter | 11.6% below the 25-week average |
| Relative Strength | Basket 4-week return against the S&P 500 | 7.2 | AI Winter | 7.9 points behind the S&P 500 over 4 weeks |
| Breadth | Share of the 18 names above their 10-week average | 10.1 | AI Winter | 11%, about two names in eighteen |
| Volatility | 8-week volatility against its one-year norm, inverted | 10.1 | AI Winter | 1.43 times the one-year norm |
| Speculation | Bull share of SOXL and SOXS trading | 85.1 | AI Mania | 66% bullish over 2 weeks |
| Rotation | AI basket against software (IGV), 4-week change | 14.9 | AI Winter | 6.0% behind software over 4 weeks |
| Sentiment | Company guidance and press release tone | 80.0 | AI Mania | 21 guidance updates in 90 days |
The new cold reading is Volatility. Ten days ago the basket was swinging about 1.13 times its normal range and the input sat in Cooling. Now it’s 1.43 times and the input has dropped to 10.1. A 12% one-day fall in the chip index will do that. Momentum got worse too, with the basket now almost 12% under its 25-week average. Relative Strength and Rotation are a little less extreme than at the start of the month, mostly because software and the broad market fell as well this week. That’s not a recovery. It’s company in misery.
Then there’s the other side. Speculation at 85.1 says two thirds of the trading in the triple-leveraged chip funds kept going to the bull side, straight through the crash. Sentiment at 80 reflects company guidance, which stayed confident through the end of earnings season. So the people paid to forecast demand are upbeat and the leveraged crowd is buying. Prices say neither group is being believed yet.
What moved the index
November 3. Chips bounced 2.6% on Election Day ahead of AMD’s results, and AMD beat after the close. The Nasdaq 100 had closed more than 10% below its October 6 high the day before, so the AI-heavy index was already in a correction going into the vote.
November 4. The midterm results gave Democrats control of Congress, and the market read that as a risk to the pace of data center construction. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.1% while the broad market rose. Qualcomm dropped about 7% on a weak forecast tied to the memory shortage.
November 5. The big one. The chip index fell 12.25% to 9,011, its largest one-day drop since March 2020 and the second-largest on record. Nvidia lost 9.3%, and AMD and Broadcom fell harder. The S&P 500 lost 4.4% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.4%. A Goldman Sachs estimate that about 45% of planned US data center capacity faces state-level pauses fed straight into the AI basket.
November 6. Chips bounced, with Nvidia up 2.8%. A strong jobs report then pushed futures toward an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.
November 8 and 9. Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation into reports that chief executive Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. Nvidia fell more than 4% on Monday. The rest of the group went the other way: the chip index jumped more than 6% intraday, AMD gained almost 12%, Broadcom and Marvell around 9%, and TSMC rose 6.5% in Taipei. Nvidia is now more than 20% below its October peak, which puts it in a bear market.
November 10. October consumer prices rose 0.4% for the month against 0.3% expected, with core at 0.3% against 0.2%. The two-year Treasury yield jumped about 17 basis points and prediction markets moved close to certain on a December hike. Nvidia fell another 5.5% while Broadcom gained 3.9% and AMD 1.3%.
November 11. The AI trade bounced. CoreWeave jumped more than 20% after a better-than-expected revenue outlook, with its chief executive saying demand for compute is growing faster than the capacity to deliver it. Nvidia snapped its two-day losing streak with a gain of more than 4% by early afternoon in New York, despite a Baird downgrade to Neutral. AMD and Broadcom rose more than 5%, TSMC about 4% and ASML 3%, and SanDisk and Micron gained more than 8%. The Nasdaq was up about 2% and the S&P 500 about 1.5% by early afternoon. The analyzer is computed after each close, so today’s move is not in the 30.4 yet.
Two things stand out. The first is that the selling has a political and a rates leg now, not just a spending-returns leg. The second is that Nvidia has become its own story. The rest of the basket bounced on Monday while the largest name kept falling, and only today did the two move up together. For the spending side of the picture, the AI Capex Tracker for November 2026 still shows the hyperscalers spending at a record pace. The previous analyzer reading covers how October got the index here.
Three years of readings
Out of 157 weekly readings, 17 have been at or below today’s 30.4. That’s about one in nine. Last week’s 28.0 is the lowest close since April 2025. The current run of five weeks below 45 is already the third-longest on record, behind 13 weeks in early 2025 and 10 weeks in the summer of 2024. The all-time high is 90.1 from February 2024 and the low is 11.5 from April 2025. Yearly averages stay in a tight band, 56.9 in 2024, 56.5 in 2025 and 58.5 so far in 2026, which makes a reading near 30 a real outlier.
Three earlier episodes fell from a peak above 75 to a reading at or below 33 within six weeks. None of them looks like a clean bottom-and-bounce.
| Episode | Peak before | First reading at or below 33 | 4 weeks later | 13 weeks later | Low in between |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | 81.8 | 24.4 | 36.1 | 44.9 | 18.0 |
| February 2025 | 77.3 | 27.1 | 30.7 | 53.8 | 11.5 |
| July 2026 | 76.0 | 28.8 | 57.9 | 36.2 | 28.8 |
| October 2026 | 69.9 | 32.2 | to come | to come | 28.0 so far |
In July 2024 the index kept falling to 18.0 before it climbed back to the edge of Neutral by mid-October. In February 2025 the first low was followed by a deeper one, the record 11.5 in April. In July 2026 the bounce came fast, Hype within four weeks, and then faded back into Cooling by mid-October. All three were higher 13 weeks later than at the trigger. Two of three got worse first. Three cases is a small sample, so treat this as a range of outcomes and not a forecast.
What to watch
- Nvidia’s quarterly report on November 17. It’s the biggest weight in the basket and now carries a governance question on top of the demand one. A strong report that the stock can’t hold would say a lot about the mood.
- Applied Materials on November 12 and October producer prices on November 13. Equipment demand and another inflation read, both this week.
- The Fed on December 8 and 9. A hike looks priced in. The guidance on what follows matters more for the price inputs.
- Speculation. Leveraged bull positioning held through a 12% day. If it finally cracks, the input drops hard and the score could slide into AI Winter. That kind of washout usually marks a lasting low, and it hasn’t happened.
- Breadth. A move back above a third of the basket trading over its 10-week average would be the first sign the bounce in AMD, Broadcom and the suppliers is spreading.
The live AI Market Analyzer updates each weekday, so check it for the reading since this post.
Bottom line
The AI Market Analyzer has spent five weeks in Cooling and touched its lowest level in 19 months, and a historic one-day chip crash only moved it a few points because the price inputs had little room left to fall. The split is now the story: five inputs at AI Winter, while leveraged chip traders and company guidance stay near AI Mania. History says readings this low have usually been higher a quarter later, but more often than not after one more leg down. For a decision maker that argues against reading this as an all-clear. Today’s rebound after CoreWeave’s results is the first test. If it lifts Breadth, it counts. If it fades within a day or two, it was just a bounce. The signals of a real turn would be leveraged bulls finally capitulating, breadth recovering past a third of the basket, or a Nvidia report on November 17 that the stock actually holds.
Method. The AI Market Analyzer averages seven equal-weight inputs, each scaled from 0 to 100, computed each weekday from an 18-stock AI basket (NVDA, AVGO, AMD, TSM, MU, SNDK, ASML, MRVL, AMAT, LRCX, ANET, VRT, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, ORCL, PLTR) plus leveraged chip ETF trading, chip and software ETFs, and company guidance and press release tone. The history is recomputed on the current basket, so a few older figures differ slightly from the November 1 post. Zones: 0 to 24 AI Winter, 25 to 44 Cooling, 45 to 55 Neutral, 56 to 75 Hype, 76 to 100 AI Mania. Readings here are for the week so far through 2026-11-10. This is a market sentiment indicator, not investment advice.
