The November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report sheds light on the transformative trajectory of 5G networks as they evolve into 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced configurations. These advancements are expected to dominate the focus of communications service providers (CSPs) through 2030, emphasizing value-driven models over the traditional data volume approach. This shift is driven by the need to deliver differentiated connectivity solutions, promising uninterrupted high-end network performance and opening new avenues for monetization and growth. Notably, early adopters such as T-Mobile in the U.S. and Elisa in Finland are already leveraging these models, highlighting the feasibility of such strategies.
Although the annual growth rate of mobile network data traffic is slowing—projected at 21 percent year-on-year in 2024—it remains significant. By 2030, global mobile traffic is expected to triple, with 5G networks predicted to handle 80 percent of this load. This is a substantial leap from 34 percent in 2024. The shift toward 5G SA is crucial to this evolution, as it enables CSPs to deploy programmable and intelligent networks, paving the way for performance-based services. However, only about 20 percent of the 320 CSPs offering commercial 5G services have transitioned to 5G SA. The densification of mid-band 5G and expansion of standalone sites will be key to unlocking 5G’s full potential.
The report provides a detailed analysis of 5G subscription trends, forecasting nearly 2.3 billion global subscriptions by the end of 2024, accounting for 25 percent of all mobile subscriptions. By 2027, 5G subscriptions are projected to surpass those of 4G globally. Furthermore, by 2030, almost 60 percent of the projected 6.3 billion 5G subscriptions will rely on 5G SA, signifying a critical shift in network deployment strategies.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has emerged as a strong second to enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) in 5G use cases, with its adoption growing rapidly across the globe. In Europe, for instance, FWA speed-based tariff offerings have surged from 32 percent to 52 percent among CSPs within a year, positioning the continent as a leader in global 5G FWA launches. By 2030, 80 percent of the estimated 350 million global FWA connections will be delivered via 5G, reflecting its growing importance in bridging digital divides and providing high-speed internet in underserved areas.
Ericsson’s report also explores the influence of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Generative AI applications, on network traffic patterns. As AI becomes more integrated across devices like smartphones, laptops, and FWA products, uplink and downlink traffic demands may exceed current predictions, further challenging networks to adapt and scale efficiently.
Looking beyond 5G, the report provides a glimpse into the future, forecasting initial 6G deployments by 2030. These networks will build on the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced, further advancing connectivity and creating new opportunities for innovation.
The report concludes with three compelling case studies that illustrate the practical applications of these technologies. T-Mobile’s advancements in network slicing in the U.S., Elisa’s premium FWA services in Finland using 5G SA, and stc’s multi-New Radio carrier strategy in Saudi Arabia highlight the diverse ways CSPs are innovating and pushing the boundaries of what modern networks can achieve.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks at Ericsson, underscores the importance of these developments: “Service differentiation and performance-based opportunities are crucial as our industry evolves. The November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report provides valuable insights into the transformative potential of high-performing programmable networks enabled by openness and cloud technologies.” This vision sets the stage for a decade of dynamic growth and innovation in global connectivity.
