The AI Market Analyzer rose to 33.5, still in the Cooling zone, after Wednesday’s rally. That’s up 3.1 points in one session and 5.5 above last week’s close of 28.0. CoreWeave’s results did it. Every stock in the Philadelphia chip index finished higher, and the share of the AI basket trading above its 10-week average went from two names to five. Then, after the bell, Nvidia fell more than 8% on reports that its board was meeting to decide whether to remove Jensen Huang. The 33.5 doesn’t include that. It’s a reading taken in the gap between a good day and a very uncertain night.
Scoreboard
| Reading | Date | Score | Zone | Change to now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (week so far) | 2026-11-11 | 33.5 | Cooling | |
| Tuesday | 2026-11-10 | 30.4 | Cooling | +3.1 |
| Last week | 2026-11-06 | 28.0 | Cooling | +5.5 |
| Two weeks ago | 2026-10-30 | 32.2 | Cooling | +1.3 |
| Month ago | 2026-10-09 | 63.6 | Hype | -30.1 |
| Year ago | 2025-11-07 | 78.3 | AI Mania | -44.8 |
Breadth moved, Volatility got worse
All seven inputs are still at the extremes, five in AI Winter and two in AI Mania. But inside the cold group, things shifted.
| Input | Score | Zone | Latest reading | Tuesday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 6.2 | AI Winter | 7.4% below the 25-week average | 5.3 |
| Relative Strength | 14.9 | AI Winter | 4.7 points behind the S&P 500 over 4 weeks | 7.2 |
| Breadth | 17.8 | AI Winter | 28% of names above the 10-week average, five of eighteen | 10.1 |
| Volatility | 6.2 | AI Winter | 1.68 times the one-year norm | 10.1 |
| Speculation | 86.1 | AI Mania | 68% bullish over 2 weeks | 85.1 |
| Rotation | 21.6 | AI Winter | 3.2% behind software over 4 weeks | 14.9 |
| Sentiment | 81.6 | AI Mania | 20 guidance updates in 90 days, 6 digests in 14 days | 80.0 |
Breadth is the input that matters most here. On Tuesday only two of the eighteen names sat above their 10-week average. Now it’s five. That’s the first sign in weeks that buying is spreading past one or two stocks, and the biggest gains in the basket came from the memory and storage names and AMD. Rotation and Relative Strength improved for the same reason: chips beat software and the S&P 500 on the day by a wide margin.
Volatility went the other way. Double-digit gains in Micron and SanDisk are big moves, and the input doesn’t care which direction they go. At 1.68 times its one-year norm, up from 1.43 on Tuesday and 1.13 at the end of October, the basket keeps swinging harder. Speculation edged up to 68% bullish. The leveraged crowd hasn’t flinched once in five weeks.
What moved the index
November 10, after the close. CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, above forecasts, and raised its revenue and operating income guidance for 2026. Its backlog stands at $132.5 billion.
November 11, regular session. CoreWeave rose 24.7%. Nebius gained 15.4%, SanDisk 13.7%, Micron 11.9% and AMD 7.3%. Every member of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed higher. Nvidia rose 2.9% to $173.73, ending a two-day slide, despite a Baird downgrade to Neutral and Morgan Stanley dropping it as a top pick. The Nasdaq 100 gained 2.3% and the S&P 500 1.3%. The bond market was closed for Veterans Day.
November 11, after the close. The New York Times reported that Huang had a second extramarital relationship, with a company executive. The Wall Street Journal then reported the board was preparing to remove him, and several outlets confirmed a board meeting that evening. Nvidia fell about 8.6% in after-hours trading and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped about 1%. Other chipmakers held up better. No decision had been announced at the time of writing. Huang has led the company for 33 years and there’s no obvious successor.
So the index caught the relief rally, and the next reading will catch whatever the board does. The previous reading covers the crash week that set this up, and the AI Capex Tracker for November 2026 has the spending side.
Three years of readings
Out of 157 weekly readings, 21 have been at or below 33.5, about one in eight. This is still the fifth straight week below 45, and still the third-longest such run on record, behind 13 weeks in early 2025 and 10 weeks in the summer of 2024. The all-time high is 90.1 from February 2024 and the low is 11.5 from April 2025.
Past episodes like this one rarely ended on the first good day. In July 2024 and February 2025 the index bounced, then fell back to or below its earlier low before it recovered. In July 2026 the bounce stuck for about a month and then faded.
What to watch
- The Nvidia board. Keeping Huang, removing him, or saying nothing all hit the price inputs differently. Nvidia is the biggest weight in the basket, and an after-hours drop of 8% is enough to undo most of Wednesday’s gain.
- Whether the rest of the basket holds. On Monday the other chips rose while Nvidia fell. If they do it again, Breadth keeps improving even with Nvidia under pressure. If they follow it down, the bounce was just a bounce.
- Applied Materials tonight and October producer prices on Friday. Equipment demand and another inflation read after Tuesday’s hot CPI.
- Nvidia’s quarterly report on November 17. Now with a leadership question on top of the demand one.
- Breadth above a third. Five of eighteen is 28%. Six would cross it.
The live AI Market Analyzer updates each weekday after the US close.
Bottom line
The AI Market Analyzer rose to 33.5 on the back of a real rally that widened participation for the first time in weeks. Breadth more than doubled and chips beat software, which is the kind of move a turn needs. But the reading is still deep in Cooling, Volatility climbed again, and the leveraged bulls still haven’t washed out. The biggest name in the basket lost the day’s gain and more after the bell. For a decision maker, Wednesday is evidence that buyers exist below these levels, not proof that the decline is over. If the other chips hold up through the Nvidia news and Breadth crosses a third of the basket, that’s a turn. If Nvidia’s leadership crisis drags the group back down, the 28.0 low from last week is the line to watch.
Method. The AI Market Analyzer averages seven equal-weight inputs, each scaled from 0 to 100, computed each weekday from an 18-stock AI basket (NVDA, AVGO, AMD, TSM, MU, SNDK, ASML, MRVL, AMAT, LRCX, ANET, VRT, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, ORCL, PLTR) plus leveraged chip ETF trading, chip and software ETFs, and company guidance and press release tone. Zones: 0 to 24 AI Winter, 25 to 44 Cooling, 45 to 55 Neutral, 56 to 75 Hype, 76 to 100 AI Mania. Readings here are for the week so far through the 2026-11-11 close and do not include after-hours trading. This is a market sentiment indicator, not investment advice.
