Dell confirmed on November 10 that it will report fiscal third-quarter 2027 results on November 24. The same evening Supermicro announced a run of investor conferences starting in Miami on November 11. Between them, the two biggest AI server builders in the US will spend the next few weeks answering one question: can record orders turn into cash fast enough to justify the debt and inventory behind them?
Dell’s setup
Dell arrives with the biggest backlog it has ever reported and a share price that’s been cut almost in half. In its fiscal second quarter it booked a record $60.9 billion of AI server orders, recognised $16.4 billion of AI server revenue and closed with a $95 billion AI backlog. That backlog was $43 billion at the end of fiscal 2026 and $51.3 billion after the first quarter.
Guidance for the November quarter is $49 billion of revenue, up about 81% year over year, $6.50 of adjusted EPS and about $19 billion of AI server revenue. For the full fiscal year Dell guided to $192 billion of revenue and $74 billion of AI-optimised server revenue, up from $60 billion previously.
The stock tells a different story. Dell fell 22.6% over two sessions in early November and closed at $317, about 47% below its 52-week high of $596. The concern is cash. Free cash flow fell 47% last quarter on record sales, inventory and receivables are rising, and Dell carries $23.6 billion of net debt after a $5 billion note sale in September. Dell doesn’t publish a schedule for when the backlog converts to revenue. AI servers carry thin margins, and trailing gross margin is 19.9%.
What to watch on November 24: AI server shipments against the $19 billion target, free cash flow, inventory, and any change to the backlog-conversion language. A second quarter of falling cash on record revenue would keep the pressure on regardless of new orders.
Supermicro’s record and its cost
Supermicro already reported. Its fiscal first quarter, released November 3, was enormous: net sales of $19.9 billion against $11.1 billion the quarter before and $5.0 billion a year earlier. Net income was $1.594 billion. AI solutions made up 71% of revenue. The company raised full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $72 billion to $82 billion from $65 billion to $72 billion.
Two details temper it. About $2.3 billion of the quarter’s revenue came from deployments delayed from earlier periods by customer and data center readiness, so part of the jump is catch-up. And GAAP gross margin fell to 12.7% from 17.5% in the prior quarter. Cash conversion improved sharply, from 149 days to 97, which answers some of the questions Dell now faces. Supermicro ended September with $6.9 billion of cash and $8.6 billion of bank debt and convertible notes.
The investor tour runs through Miami, Scottsdale, New York and San Francisco until December 10. Expect management to lean on the cash-cycle improvement and the raised guidance. Expect investors to ask about margins.
Both companies sit downstream of the spending tracked in our AI Capex Tracker. Orders aren’t the problem for either of them. Margins and cash are.
