The Semicap Pulse reads 48.5, Steady, for the week ending October 30. That middle reading hides a split. Chip equipment shares just had their worst four weeks since the price history behind the gauge begins in late 2024, while the order books and export numbers behind them are running close to the top of the scale. Investors are selling the stocks. The customers are still buying the tools.
Scoreboard
| Reading | Week of | Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semicap Pulse, four inputs | 2026-10-30 | 48.5 | Steady |
| Market and trade pulse, three inputs | 2026-10-30 | 35.4 | Softening |
| Market and trade pulse, week ago | 2026-10-23 | 32.0 | Softening |
| Market and trade pulse, month ago | 2026-10-02 | 56.4 | Expanding |
| Market and trade pulse, year ago | 2025-10-31 | 89.7 | Boom |
The headline uses four inputs. The order book input is scored by hand from company reports and starts with this reading, so the history below tracks the other three, the market and trade pulse. On that measure the last three weeks are the three lowest readings since the series begins in May 2025.
Four inputs, two stories
| Input | What it measures | Score | Zone | Latest reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | Equipment basket against its 26-week average | 0.0 | Contraction | 20.2% below the 26-week average |
| Relative Strength | Basket 13-week return against the chip index (SMH) | 10.2 | Contraction | 11.9 points behind chips over 13 weeks |
| Exports | Dutch and Japanese chip equipment trade, year on year | 96.1 | Boom | Dutch exports +33.8%, Japanese billings +47.4% |
| Order Book | Bookings, backlog and guidance language from six companies | 87.5 | Boom | Average +1.5 on a scale of -2 to +2 |
The basket of five equipment makers fell 24.5% on average in four weeks and now sits 20.2% below its 26-week average, which pins Momentum at zero. It has also done worse than chips as a whole. Over 13 weeks the equipment names trail the chip index by close to 12 points, so this was more than a general chip selloff. Investors marked down the suppliers of new capacity harder than the companies that sell chips.
The trade and order numbers point the other way. Dutch exports of chip-making machines outside the European Union rose 33.8% in the three months to August against a year earlier, and Japanese equipment billings hit a record in August, up 47.4%. Every company in the order book scored positive, and three of the six scored at the top of the scale.
The companies
| Company | Close Oct 30 | 4 weeks | 13 weeks | 52 weeks | Vs 26-week average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE Semiconductor (BESI) | €154.00 | -24.8% | -22.3% | +4.3% | -32.2% |
| ASM International (ASMI) | €729.80 | -22.8% | -8.9% | +29.9% | -16.0% |
| ASML | $1,565.90 | -16.0% | -3.8% | +48.8% | -8.5% |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | $390.09 | -27.8% | -23.1% | +68.3% | -21.1% |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | $239.11 | -31.2% | -18.3% | +52.5% | -23.4% |
| Tokyo Electron (TEL) | ¥9,514 | -21.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Chip index (SMH) | $522.49 | -17.1% | -3.3% | +44.4% | -9.7% |
Lam Research and Applied Materials took the biggest hits, down 31.2% and 27.8% in four weeks. BESI fell 24.8% and ASM International 22.8%. ASML held up best of the group at minus 16.0%, roughly in line with the chip index. Tokyo Electron lost 21.4% over the same four weeks. Over a full year the other four basket names are still up by a wide margin, led by Applied at 68.3%, while BESI is up just 4.3%.
Order books
| Company | Latest report | What it said | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | Q3, mid-October | Order book up every quarter this year; customers keep raising demand forecasts; planned 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand; 2026 sales guide €44 to €45 billion | +2 |
| Applied Materials | Fiscal Q3, August | Record revenue of $9.12 billion; next-quarter guide raised to $10.25 billion from $8.95 billion | +2 |
| ASM International | Q3, October 27 | Revenue up 45%; 2027 revenue above €5.7 billion, three years ahead of plan; share buyback | +2 |
| Lam Research | September quarter, October 21 | Revenue of $8.22 billion; December quarter guided to $8.60 billion, held back by supply constraints | +1 |
| BESI | Q3, October 22 | Orders of €342.6 million, up 96.1% on a year ago; Q4 revenue guided flat | +1 |
| Tokyo Electron | Fiscal H1 guide, May | First-half sales guided up 33% on AI demand; first-half results still to come | +1 |
Two of the October reports moved the stocks the wrong way despite strong numbers. Lam guided the December quarter to $8.6 billion and said the figure would have been a bit higher without supply chain limits, and the shares dropped on the open while Applied fell with them. Lam also put 2026 wafer fab equipment spending in the mid-$150 billion range and gave a first look at 2027 above $200 billion. ASML missed revenue estimates by a hair and fell, even as it told investors that some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030.
Hybrid bonding
BESI’s third quarter is the clearest read on hybrid bonding. Orders rose 17.0% on the second quarter and 96.1% on a year ago to €342.6 million, and the company says hybrid bonding orders this year have more than doubled against 2025. It now counts 23 hybrid bonding customers and cumulative demand of more than 215 systems. The disappointment was timing. Revenue for the fourth quarter is guided flat, which left the midpoint below what analysts expected, and the stock has given back about half its June peak. ASM International’s numbers support the same memory theme from another angle, with strong sales into HBM-related DRAM. The gap between orders and shipped revenue is what a buyer of the hybrid bonding thesis is paying for today.
Exports
| Month | Dutch exports outside the EU | 3-month change y/y | Japanese billings, 3-month average | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | €1.68 billion | -22.3% | ¥480.2 billion | +11.1% |
| April 2026 | €1.47 billion | -22.7% | ¥510.2 billion | +14.1% |
| May 2026 | €0.94 billion | -34.2% | ¥526.4 billion | +17.9% |
| June 2026 | €2.81 billion | -14.4% | ¥513.6 billion | +26.9% |
| July 2026 | €2.52 billion | +2.4% | ¥556.2 billion | not published |
| August 2026 | €2.73 billion | +33.8% | ¥597.9 billion | +47.4% |
Dutch exports are lumpy because a handful of EUV machines can swing a month by hundreds of millions of euros, which is why the pulse uses a three-month sum. The trend turned in the summer. The three months to May were down more than a third on a year earlier, while June to August came in at €8.06 billion and up 33.8%. Japanese billings have risen in every month but one since February, and the August figure of ¥597.9 billion is the highest on record.
Market and trade history
Across 79 weekly readings the market and trade pulse has spent 30 weeks in Expanding and 25 in Boom. It has never touched Contraction. The peak of 90.1 came in October 2025, a year ago. The fall since early October came almost entirely from the two price inputs.
What to watch
- Applied Materials in mid-November. Its fiscal fourth-quarter report and guide is the next big order book signal, and the one most likely to move the price inputs.
- Tokyo Electron’s first-half results. The order book input currently carries Tokyo Electron on its May guidance.
- September trade data. The next Dutch and Japanese releases will show whether the summer export jump held.
- Relative strength against chips. When equipment stocks start to beat the chip index again, the market is pricing the next capacity wave.
- The wider AI trade. The AI Market Analyzer fell to Cooling this month, and the AI Capex Tracker shows the big spenders still raising budgets. Both feed straight into equipment orders.
Bottom line
The equipment cycle and the equipment stocks have come apart. Orders, guidance and trade data say chipmakers are still adding capacity at a fast clip, with ASML short of supply into 2028, Lam pointing to a much bigger 2027 and Japanese billings at a record. The shares have priced something closer to a downturn, falling a quarter in a month and lagging the chips they help make. For decision makers that gap is the story. If the November reports from Applied and Tokyo Electron hold the order line, the price inputs have room to recover toward the fundamentals, and BESI and ASM International are where the hybrid bonding and HBM orders sit. If guidance slips, the market will have been early rather than wrong. Watch the order book and relative strength against chips for the turn.
Method. The Semicap Pulse averages four equal-weight inputs, each scaled from 0 to 100. Momentum is the average distance of BESI, ASM International, ASML, Applied Materials and Lam Research from their 26-week average, mapped from minus 15% to plus 15%. Relative Strength is that basket’s 13-week return less the SMH chip index, mapped from minus 15 to plus 15 points. Exports averages two scores, Dutch extra-EU exports of chip-making machines (HS 8486, three-month sum, year on year) and Japanese equipment billings (three-month average, year on year), each mapped from minus 40% to plus 40%. Order Book scores each company’s latest report from minus 2 to plus 2 and rescales the average. Tokyo Electron appears in the tables but stays out of the price inputs until a longer price history is in place. Zones: 0 to 24 Contraction, 25 to 44 Softening, 45 to 55 Steady, 56 to 75 Expanding, 76 to 100 Boom. Readings are as of the week ending 2026-10-30. This is a market indicator, not investment advice.
